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The Turkish government unveiled bold initiatives in 2009 in a bid to solve the decades-long problems of the country on the domestic front but has failed to finalize any of them by year’s end amid mounting opposition in Parliament and growing skepticism among the people.

Added to that, government blunders in communicating these initiatives in effective and well-thought-out public diplomacy has weakened the government’s hand. The government received high marks, however, on the management of Turkey’s external relations and deserved credit for keeping the economy afloat without a financial bailout.

“The government has undertaken too many battles at the same time in 2009 in a bid to solve the decades-long problems of the country while having failed to communicate all these initiatives to the public in a convincing manner,” says a professor who manages a public survey firm in Ankara.

Professor Özer Sencar, the owner of the Ankara-based MetroPOLL Strategic and Social Research Center, says the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government is running out of time as the national elections are coming up in 2011, if not earlier. “Most of the issues the government is trying to tackle were left for next year, and they [AK Party officials] do not seem to have clear strategies for addressing the mounting grievances and increasing concerns of the people,” he told Sunday’s Zaman.

Indeed Sencar’s point is well placed and points to the state of the country, which is looking more like an unfinished patchwork quilt. During the summer of 2009, the government unveiled the democratization initiative to solve the long-running Kurdish problem, only to be revised later to incorporate the problems of other groups, including religious minorities. The goal was to expand freedoms and democratic rights for all in Turkey, making sure that the rights of minorities are well protected.

With the obstacles facing the political process and democratic engagement to be eventually removed, the government calculated that the armed Kurdish terrorist group the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) would lay down its arms. Well, it did not work out quite as well as the government had hoped. The opposition parties dragged their feet and committed themselves to staunchly opposing the government initiative. Constitutional changes remained out of the question without the support of the opposition.

The polarized Parliament did not allow any new reform laws to be passed in 2009 with the exception of the one hastily passed at a midnight session in June to allow civilian courts to try military officers for certain offenses. Amid mounting opposition both from within Parliament and also from countries such as France and Germany, which are opposed to Turkey’s European Union bid, the government has lost much of its enthusiasm for EU negotiations. The prospect of an accelerated reform process next year looks dim as the opposition parties signal that they will dig in their heels further.

Tough road ahead for undertaking reforms

The closure of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) by the Constitutional Court added woes to the already tense process of the democratization initiative, which was marred by street clashes and violent demonstrations in predominantly Kurdish cities in the Southeast. The party was soon replaced by the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP). Nonetheless, the government vowed to keep moving forward with the initiative no matter what happened.

The chairman of the AK Party’s parliamentary group, Suat Kılıç, told Sunday’s Zaman the government was more than determined to continue with the initiative. “We are taking our steps for democratization for the nation, not for the opposition or the terrorist organization [PKK]. The only other party in this process is the nation. Our people want these steps to be taken,” he said.

In addition to the Kurdish initiative, the government is trying to the address problems and demands of the Alevis and Roma. The government completed the sixth round of workshops with leading Alevi leaders in order to identify problem areas and reconcile different factions of the Alevi community. Alevi workshop coordinator Necdet Subaşı told Sunday’s Zaman that the Alevi initiative has gone through a very good preparation process and said the political will is there to back up the process. “The package to solve Alevi problems may reach the Turkish Parliament sooner rather than later,” he said.

Another issue to be left until 2010 is the ongoing trial of Ergenekon, a clandestine criminal organization charged with plotting to overthrow the democratically elected government of Turkey. The case is very complex and involves many people from the military, bureaucracy, academia, business world and media. As prosecutors dig deeper, they discover more and more plots aimed to wreak havoc on the country by masterminding killing sprees, including high-profile minority leaders and political figures. Turkey is likely to see more evidence uncovering vicious plans intended to destroy democratic institutions in the country next year.

Gov’t fares better on foreign relations

On foreign relations, the government seemed to have fared much better in contrast to domestic issues. Mardin deputy Cüneyt Yüksel from the AK Party, currently serving as the vice president of his party’s political and legal affairs commission, told Sunday’s Zaman that the pro-active engagement of Turkish foreign policy has started producing positive results for the country already. “The old doctrine of ‘wait and see’ vis-à-vis Turkey’s neighbors was replaced with a ‘complete integration’ policy aimed at creating enhanced economic ties with countries,” he said, adding that the momentum will pick up speed in 2010.

He also said the domestic issues are sometimes connected with external ones as well. “Look at the democratization initiative. The external conditions for a solution to the terrorism problem in Turkey are very ripe at the moment. Both the Iraqi central government and the Kurdish administration in northern Iraq are working in tandem to eliminate the PKK problem, and the US is throwing its full support behind the breakup of the terror network,” Yüksel explained.

Yüksel, who accompanied Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on his visit to Washington earlier this month, said foreign relations priorities between the United States and Turkey have converged on a number of issues. In the historic meeting between Erdoğan and US President Barack Obama, both leaders reaffirmed a mutual determination to flesh out the “model partnership” declared between Ankara and Washington. Though both countries disagreed over Iran’s nuclear program and Turkey’s unwillingness to change the parameters of its mission in Afghanistan, the US administration has clearly voiced its appreciation of the role played by Turkey in contributing to the maintenance of global peace.

“And given Turkey’s history as a secular democratic state that respects the rule of law, but is also a majority Muslim nation, it plays a critical role, I think, in helping to shape mutual understanding and stability and peace not only in its neighborhood but around the world,” Obama said at a joint press conference following the talks. Thus 2010 will be a year during which the Turkish public will see what this “model partnership” entails and what kind of results it will generate.

Regarding the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia, Turkey is still waiting to see some kind of movement in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue before moving to ratify the two protocols signed by both governments on restoring diplomatic ties and reopening the common border between the two neighboring countries.

Cyprus will occupy a central place in Turkish foreign policy next year because Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat faces a possible ousting by a hard-line opponent in the April election. Unless there is a settlement by that time, talks aimed at reunifying the divided island will likely break down. Cyprus was split in 1974 when Turkey militarily intervened after a coup by supporters of unification with Greece. The island joined the EU in 2004, but only Greek Cypriots enjoy the benefits.

Economy will pick up speed

Although the Turkish economy was battered throughout 2009 due to the global economic crisis, it was in much a better position compared to other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The economy is well on its way to recovery. International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has upgraded Turkey’s sovereign rating two notches from “BB-” to “BB+,” reflecting Turkey’s relative resilience to the severe stress test of the global financial crisis and some easing of previously acute constraints related to inflation, external finances and political risk.

Turkey was able to avert a balance of payments, or financial, crisis during 2009 even without help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). There has been no significant capital flight from the country. Interest rates have fallen to single digits for the first time in its modern history, to 5.1 percent, from an average of 10.4 percent in 2008. The current account deficit (CAD) was down to comfortable levels.

Still, many argue for cautious optimism for the next year. The central government’s budget deficit will widen, reflecting the need to pump more money into the market, while revenue is falling. The Turkish government unveiled stimulus packages in 2009 to revive the ailing economy through expansionary fiscal policies. It targets curbing expenses to a degree in the 2010 budget to reduce the country’s risk premium, but the approaching election in 2011 may force government to flex its fiscal and budgetary discipline.

ABDULLAH BOZKURT ANKARA
zaman.com